In recent days, judging from the continuous price increases of waste paper, base paper and cardboard, the paper industry seems to usher in the first wave of price increases in 2020.
Specifically, according to data from the China Paper Network, the national waste paper price was raised by 50 / tonne on February 17th, among which the prices of some paper mills in eastern, northern and western regions were generally raised by 30-50 / tonne; in addition, February 18th Quotations of waste paper were raised by 50 / tons across the country, and more than 30 paper companies raised their prices. Among them, Nine Dragons and Lee & Man led the rise; and as of February 19, the waste paper prices of some paper mills in East and South China were generally Increased by 50-7 / ton, paper companies such as Chunqiu Paper and Ping An Paper adjusted their prices.
In addition, it should be pointed out that in this wave of price increases, Nine Dragons Paper's factories in Shenyang, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Dongguan, and Chongqing have raised the average selling price per ton by 50. Lee & Man's plants in Jiangsu, Dongguan and Chongqing also saw similar price increases, but Jiangxi's plants increased by 30 this week.
Based on the above data, it can be seen that the first wave of price increases in the paper industry in 2020 can be described as violent, with a wide range and a large amplitude exceeding the imagination of the outside world.
I have to say that for this wave of rising prices in the paper industry, the outside world believes that it is an inevitable phenomenon, but this is not necessarily good news for paper companies, that is, the epidemic is still incomplete. During the control period, postponement of resumption of work has become the normal development of most enterprises, and once the "return to work is difficult" occurs, it makes papermaking enterprises in a "difficult situation"-frequent increases in prices of upstream raw materials have exacerbated costs and increased demand for downstream has led to supply shortages.
In short, the increase in the price of waste paper is not good news for paper companies, because with the rise in the price of raw materials, this means that their costs will increase, but it will reduce their profit margins to a certain extent. .
What changes and changes will paper companies face under the epidemic?
As we all know, the paper industry is an important light industry manufacturing industry in China, with an annual total revenue of more than 800 billion yuan, which is closely related to many fields such as packaging, logistics, printing, and residential life. Among them, the main paper products can be divided into two categories: waste paper and pulp and paper based on the main source of raw materials. According to the product's functional use, it can be divided into packaging paper, cultural paper, household paper, special paper and other five categories.
In recent years, under the influence of stricter environmental protection, 2018 and even negative growth that has not been encountered for many years, and China will completely ban foreign waste imports in the vicinity of 2021, the paper industry has seen some significant and long-term impacts on the industry's development direction. Change-the transition from the incremental market to the stock market and the re-engineering of the global circulation system of fiber raw materials, thereby driving the industry to optimize the production structure, and the upstream and overseas layout to become new trends.
According to the expectations of most previous institutions, it is not surprising that 2020 will be a year in which the profitability of the paper industry is repaired upwards.
Specifically, the paper industry is less affected in light industry. According to relevant research reports, after the opening of the market after the Spring Festival until February 12, the papermaking index fell 5.74%, second only to the entertainment industry in the light industry. Among them, tissue paper company Zhongshun Jierou was least affected by the epidemic, and its stock price rebounded quickly after the holiday and hit a new high, even outperforming the CSI 300.
In addition, the packaging paper was hit hardest by the epidemic, but the epidemic is expected to accelerate the reshuffle of the industry. It is understood that, although many local governments have stipulated to resume production from February 10, 2020 (February 14 in Hubei), as of February 11, most companies in the corrugated cardboard market have not resumed production, and until February 19 only Only a few companies resumed production. However, the long-term shutdown during the epidemic may cause some small and medium-sized enterprises to have a cash flow crisis, which is expected to accelerate the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises and promote the leading market share.
As for cultural paper and tissue paper, the demand is still normal, so it will be less affected. It is understood that in terms of printed materials, the purchase of books and magazines can be changed from offline to online, so its printing volume is less affected; in terms of teaching materials, due to the delay of the start of school, there may be delays in printing teaching materials, but the amount of paper used is still guaranteed. Demand for tissue paper is relatively rigid, and it is less affected by the negative impact of the epidemic. The epidemic caused people to snap up necessities such as household paper, stockpiling increased short-term sales, and had little effect on real demand throughout the year, and more seasonal fluctuations may occur.
Based on the above, we can see that under the epidemic situation, although the packaging paper, cultural paper and household paper have been affected to varying degrees, the overall upward repair trend of the paper industry can be maintained.
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